With the recent influx of mainstream financial players into the blockchain space, how long will it take for corporate allocation of Bitcoin (BTC) to become the norm? Brian Estes, founder of investment firm Off The Chain Capital, thinks 10 years.
“I think in 2029, 2030, when 90% of U.S. households and people in the United States use cryptocurrency and Bitcoin, then I think it becomes a stable part of the economy, and not just the U.S. economy, but I think the world economy,” Estes told Cointelegraph in an interview.
Estes’ rationale is based on an analysis of the S-curve, a common graphical image depicting the speed and process of adoption for new technologies. “The amount of time it takes for a new technology to go from 0% adoption to 10% adoption is the same amount of time takes it to go from 10% adoption to 90% adoption,” Estes said.
Digital asset holders make up at least 15% of the 18-and-older U.S. population, based on 2020 data from consultancy firm Cornerstone Advisors, as reported by Forbes contributor Ron Shevlin in July. Acting U.S. Comptroller of the Currency Brian Brooks also commented on this 15% estimate in an August interview with CNN.
In 2019, only 10% of U.S. persons held crypto assets, up from 0% before Bitcoin’s launch in early 2009, Estes pointed out. In April 2019, data from Blockchain Capital asserted that Bitcoin holders comprised 11% of the U.S. population.
“It took 10 years for Bitcoin to go from 0–10% adoption,” he said. According to S-curve analysis, BTC should reach 90% adoption over the current decade. In light of 15% of U.S. folks holding crypto in 2020, Estes said: “We’re right on track to hit 90% in the year 2029.”
“It’s not an ‘if’ anymore,” Estes said of crypto adoption, adding:
“Between 0 and 10% adoption, its an ‘if.’ Once a new technology hits 10% adoption, its a ‘when.’ It’s the same amount of time, and I can give you plenty of examples — from personal computers, to internet, to fax machines in the 1970s, to washing machines in the 1940s, to automobiles in the 1930s, railroads in the 1800s, shipping in the 1600s — it’s all the same adoption curve.”